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Samaje Perine

Samaje Perine Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Samaje Perine Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+275/-330).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -320 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -330.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 62.4% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Right now, the most pass-oriented team in football near the end zone (65.0% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Bengals.
  • The Dolphins pass defense has yielded the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (90.4%) vs. RBs this year (90.4%).
  • The Miami Dolphins linebackers grade out as the 6th-best LB corps in the league this year in regard to run defense.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's line suggests a running game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3.5 points.
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bengals are predicted by the projection model to call just 61.2 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.1 per game) this year.
  • With a meager 1.5% Red Zone Target Rate (25th percentile) this year, Samaje Perine places as one of the pass-catching RBs with the smallest workloads near the goal line in the league.
  • Samaje Perine's 4.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 9.4.

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