Samaje Perine Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Samaje Perine

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Samaje Perine Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a huge 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 61.3 plays per game.
Samaje Perine's running effectiveness has improved this season, compiling 5.27 yards-per-carry compared to just 4.03 mark last season.
Samaje Perine has been among the top RBs in the NFL at generating extra running yardage, averaging a terrific 4.12 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 96th percentile.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 33.2% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has produced the 6th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, conceding just 4.29 yards-per-carry.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.