Samaje Perine Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

NFL · Player Props

Samaje Perine

RB · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

Samaje Perine Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-113/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast Samaje Perine to garner 2.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 75th percentile when it comes to running backs.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point increase in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Samaje Perine has been more heavily utilized in his offense's pass attack.
Samaje Perine's 30.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year signifies an impressive improvement in his receiving skills over last year's 18.0 rate.
Samaje Perine's 92.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a meaningful growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 81.4% figure.
Samaje Perine's receiving efficiency has gotten better this year, compiling 10.04 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 6.23 figure last year.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Denver Broncos offensive strategy to skew 2.0% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 4th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Broncos to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 4th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Broncos this year (a lowly 53.7 per game on average).
The Vikings pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus RBs this year, allowing 4.66 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in the league.