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Sam LaPorta Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

Sam LaPorta Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+194/-210).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +192 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +194.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

With a top-tier 15.6% Red Zone Target Rate (81st percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta rates as one of the TEs with the most usage near the goal line in the NFL.

Sam LaPorta's 36.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 89th percentile for TEs.

Sam LaPorta's 88.4% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a remarkable gain in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 77.8% figure.

This year, the weak Minnesota Vikings defense has yielded a massive 0.57 TDs through the air per game to opposing TEs: the 7th-biggest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Lions are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to pass on 54.6% of their chances: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

Right now, the 6th-most run-focused team in the NFL near the goal line (47.2% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Lions.

At the moment, the most sluggish paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Detroit Lions.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.6 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

More Sam LaPorta Player Props

Sam LaPorta TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

Sam LaPorta Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9