My Account Log Out

reorder

Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Cincinnati Bengals vs Detroit Lions

Sam LaPorta Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+196/-245).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -240 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -245.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing teams have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 8th-most in the league.

While Sam LaPorta has garnered 12.5% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of Detroit's pass game near the end zone in this contest at 18.4%.

Sam LaPorta's 34.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the league leaders: 84th percentile for TEs.

Sam LaPorta's 86.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this season shows a noteable boost in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 77.8% mark.

The Bengals defense has conceded the 6th-most receiving touchdowns in football to TEs: 0.50 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Lions, who are a massive favorite by 10 points.

Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to be the 3rd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Lions to be the 10th-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 45.5% red zone run rate.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

After accumulating 41.0 air yards per game last season, Sam LaPorta has fallen off this season, currently averaging 28.0 per game.

More Sam LaPorta Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™