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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns

Sam LaPorta Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+220/-295).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -265 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -295.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The 5th-most plays in the league have been run by the Detroit Lions since the start of last season (a staggering 59.3 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

While Sam LaPorta has accounted for 14.3% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Detroit's offense near the end zone in this week's contest at 19.3%.

Sam LaPorta has totaled a monstrous 39.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Lions offensive gameplan to tilt 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator John Morton now calling the plays.

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Lions being a heavy 10-point favorite in this game.

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Browns defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

With a terrible ratio of just 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Sam LaPorta rates among the worst receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL among tight ends this year.

More Sam LaPorta Player Props

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