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Sam LaPorta Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions

Sam LaPorta Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+184/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -200.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Sam LaPorta has been in the 89th percentile among tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) with a colossal 38.0 figure this year.

Sam LaPorta's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 77.8% to 87.7%.

With a stellar ratio of 0.30 per game through the air (75th percentile), Sam LaPorta has been among the top receiving TD-scorers in the NFL when it comes to tight ends this year.

This year, the poor Commanders pass defense has surrendered a whopping 82.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 6th-highest rate in the league.

The Commanders defense has given up the 4th-most touchdowns through the air in the league to tight ends: 0.67 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Lions, who are overwhelmingly favored by 8 points.

Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions as the 5th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

At the present time, the 7th-most run-focused offense in football near the goal line (47.2% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Detroit Lions.

At the moment, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Detroit Lions.

Sam LaPorta has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (30.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).

More Sam LaPorta Player Props

Sam LaPorta TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 10

Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions

Sam LaPorta Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10