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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Sam LaPorta Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-160/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • With a high 81.5% Route Participation Rate (91st percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta places as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads in football.
  • The projections expect Sam LaPorta to total 5.7 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • With an exceptional 3.6 adjusted receptions per game (85th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta has been as one of the leading TE receiving threats in the league.
  • Sam LaPorta's 88.4% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a remarkable gain in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 77.8% figure.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Lions are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to pass on 55.0% of their chances: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • At the moment, the most sluggish paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Detroit Lions.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.6 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

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