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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Sam LaPorta Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect Sam LaPorta to garner 6.0 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
  • With a remarkable 18.5% Target Share (94th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta stands among the TEs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
  • Sam LaPorta ranks as one of the top pass-game tight ends this year, averaging an exceptional 3.0 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.
  • Sam LaPorta's 84.9% Adjusted Catch% this year indicates a remarkable growth in his receiving prowess over last year's 77.8% rate.
  • The Chiefs pass defense has been gouged for the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (80.6%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (80.6%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.5% pass rate.
  • At the moment, the most sluggish paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Lions.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.2 per game) this year.
  • When talking about pocket protection (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Lions profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Kansas City's collection of LBs has been very good this year, grading out as the 9th-best in football.

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