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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

Sam LaPorta Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+129/-154).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +129.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 6th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions last year (a staggering 59.6 per game on average).

Sam LaPorta has run a route on 81.7% of his team's dropbacks last year, putting him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.

The projections expect Sam LaPorta to total 5.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.

With an impressive 3.8 adjusted catches per game (82nd percentile) last year, Sam LaPorta places as one of the leading pass-catching tight ends in the NFL.

The Green Bay Packers pass defense has yielded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78%) vs. TEs last year (78.0%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Detroit Lions have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.

The Green Bay Packers safeties profile as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL last year in defending receivers.

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