Sam LaPorta Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Sam LaPorta

NFL · Player Props

Sam LaPorta

TE · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Sam LaPorta Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -147 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by the predictive model to run 65.8 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
The 5th-most plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 62.8 per game on average).
The Chargers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (41.0 per game) this year.
In this week's game, Sam LaPorta is anticipated by the projection model to finish in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 7.7 targets.
Sam LaPorta ranks in the 96th percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) with a staggering 48.6 figure this year.

Favors Under

The Lions rank as the 10th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 59.9% pass rate.

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