Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Sam LaPorta

NFL · Player Props

Sam LaPorta

TE · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 6, 2025

Updated Oct 13, 2025 12:17 AM EST

Analysis

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-107/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect Sam LaPorta to garner 6.0 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
With a remarkable 18.5% Target Share (94th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta stands among the TEs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
Sam LaPorta's 84.9% Adjusted Catch% this year indicates a remarkable growth in his receiving prowess over last year's 77.8% rate.
Sam LaPorta's receiving efficiency has gotten better this year, accumulating 10.31 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a measly 9.20 rate last year.
The Chiefs pass defense has been gouged for the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (80.6%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (80.6%).

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.5% pass rate.
At the moment, the most sluggish paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Lions.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.2 per game) this year.
Sam LaPorta has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (41.0 per game).
When talking about pocket protection (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Lions profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.

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