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Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-107/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 37.5 @ -124 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -107.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The 5th-most plays in the league have been run by the Detroit Lions since the start of last season (a staggering 59.3 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

With a top-tier 79.9% Route Participation% (93rd percentile) since the start of last season, Sam LaPorta ranks as one of the tight ends with the highest volume in football.

The projections expect Sam LaPorta to total 5.6 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 86th percentile among TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Lions offensive gameplan to tilt 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator John Morton now calling the plays.

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Lions being a heavy 10-point favorite in this game.

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Browns defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

Sam LaPorta has posted quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (34.0) this year than he did last year (45.0).

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