Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Sam LaPorta

NFL · Player Props

Sam LaPorta

TE · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:01 PM EST

Analysis

Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Lions to call the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.0 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this game, Sam LaPorta is predicted by our trusted projection set to place in the 98th percentile when it comes to TEs with 7.4 targets.
With a remarkable 22.5% Target% (98th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta ranks as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
Sam LaPorta has accrued a staggering 42.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Lions are a giant 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to pass on 54.0% of their plays: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Panthers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.2 per game) this year.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Carolina's group of safeties has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 10th-best in football.

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