Sam Howell TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

TD Passes

Washington Commanders vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM EST

Analysis

Sam Howell TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +170 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Commanders are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 62.2 plays per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the 6th-least passing TDs in the league: 1.16 per game since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 10th-best group of LBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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