Sam Howell TD Passes
Player Prop Week 18

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys

Sam Howell TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-280/+200).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

The projections expect the Commanders to be the most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 66.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The projections expect the Commanders to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 61.3% red zone pass rate.

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.6 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The predictive model expects Sam Howell to attempt 39.1 passes in this week's game, on average: the 3rd-most out of all quarterbacks.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) usually mean lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and increased ground volume.

Opposing teams have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Cowboys defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.

Sam Howell has been one of the least on-target QBs in the league this year with a 61.9% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 20th percentile.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in football versus the Cowboys defense this year (63.5% Adjusted Completion%).

As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Dallas's LB corps has been terrific this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the league.

More Sam Howell Player Props

Sam Howell TD PassesPlayer Prop Week 18

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys

Sam Howell TD Passes
Player Prop Week 18