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Sam Howell

Sam Howell Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

New York Jets vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Sam Howell Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 3rd-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.41 seconds per play.
  • Sam Howell isn't afraid to take off running, accounting for 14.1% of his team's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 81st percentile among quarterbacks.
  • Sam Howell's ground efficiency (6.32 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (86th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks).
  • Sam Howell has been one of the top quarterbacks in the league at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a stellar 4.79 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 100th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
  • The predictive model expects the Commanders to be the 2nd-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.2% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • When it comes to blocking for ball-carriers (and the significance it has on all ground game metrics), the O-line of the Washington Commanders ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL last year.
  • This year, the poor New York Jets run defense has allowed a colossal 4.02 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing offenses: the 26th-worst rate in the NFL.
  • When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, New York's unit has been great this year, profiling as the 9th-best in the league.

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