Sam Howell Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

Passing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 237.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 239.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 237.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 13.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 66.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Our trusted projections expect Sam Howell to attempt 38.3 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-most among all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

This year, the tough Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing teams: a paltry 6.9 yards.
The Eagles defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.02 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in the league.

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