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Sam Howell

Sam Howell Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Washington Commanders vs Buffalo Bills

Sam Howell Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 224.5 (-105/-125).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The Commanders are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 62.2 plays per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.

The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 203.0 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.

The Buffalo Bills defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.49 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the league.

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