Sam Howell Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

Carries

Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-105/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Sam Howell to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this week (15.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.7% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 9.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Commanders are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 9th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 38.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 9th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.

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