Sam Howell Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Sam Howell

NFL · Player Props

Sam Howell

QB · Washington Commanders

Carries

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam Howell Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.73 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Sam Howell to earn 6.3 carries in this game, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Sam Howell to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (22.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.8% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The Arizona Cardinals safeties grade out as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

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