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Sam Ehlinger

Sam Ehlinger Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts

Sam Ehlinger Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+321/-591).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +368 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +321.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Indianapolis Colts offense has played at the 9th-fastest pace in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 27.27 seconds per snap.

THE BLITZ projects Sam Ehlinger to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (24.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (7.7% in games he has played).

The New England Patriots defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-worst collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

The Indianapolis Colts have gone for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.

The Colts have been the 8th-least run-oriented team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 36.5% red zone run rate.

The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.

Opposing offenses have run for the 3rd-least TDs in the league (0.50 per game) against the New England Patriots defense this year.

The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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