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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Seattle Seahawks vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Sam Darnold Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1250/-1900).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1900 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1900.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Colts defense has been something of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year.
  • Sam Darnold has not attempted to carry the ball himself near the end zone at all this year.
  • Sam Darnold is positioned as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football this year with an excellent 67.7% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 83rd percentile.
  • With a fantastic ratio of 1.57 per game (83rd percentile), Sam Darnold ranks among the top TD throwers in football this year.
  • This year, Sam Darnold has not scored any rushing touchdowns.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 13-point advantage, the Seahawks are a massive favorite in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on running than their usual approach.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The projections expect the Seahawks to be the 2nd-most run-centric offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 51.7% red zone run rate.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 126.1 plays on offense called: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.
  • The Seahawks have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.1 plays per game.

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