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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Tennessee Titans vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Sam Darnold Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1400/-2100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +1400 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +1400.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for a mere 0.0% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year (2nd percentile among QBs), Sam Darnold's one-dimensionality makes him no threat in the run game near the end zone.
  • Sam Darnold's 70.7% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a meaningful improvement in his throwing precision over last season's 66.2% mark.
  • With a lousy rate of only 0.00 rushing TDs per game (3rd percentile), Sam Darnold places as one of the bottom running QBs in football this year.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-highest clip in football vs. the Titans defense this year (75.8% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Tennessee defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best group of DEs in football this year with their run defense.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme running game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a big 12.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 49.5% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
  • At the moment, the 2nd-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (52.2% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Seattle Seahawks.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have only 127.4 total plays run: the 4th-fewest among all games this week.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.3 plays per game.

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