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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
Sam Darnold Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1200/-1650).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1800 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1650.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 131.4 total plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may suffer.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game against the Cardinals defense this year: 5th-most in football.
  • Sam Darnold is not much of a runner and has accounted for a measly 0.0% of his team's run game usage near the end zone this year, ranking him in the 2nd percentile among quarterbacks.
  • Sam Darnold's 70.5% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a substantial progression in his throwing accuracy over last year's 66.2% figure.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 6.5-point advantage, the Seahawks are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on running than their usual game plan.
  • The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to be the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 50.5% red zone run rate.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 51.4 plays per game.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 9th-lowest clip in the NFL versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year (68.4% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the formidable Arizona Cardinals defense has given up a measly 1.12 passing TDs per game to opposing QBs: the 7th-lowest rate in the league.

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