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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

Seattle Seahawks vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+113/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -122.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • In terms of a defense's influence on tempo, the Seattle Seahawks defense has allowed opposing squads to play 8th-quickest in the league (in a neutral context) this year at 27.87 seconds per play.
  • Sam Darnold's 69.3% Adjusted Completion% this season shows an impressive gain in his throwing accuracy over last season's 66.2% mark.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Seahawks are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Seahawks to pass on 53.5% of their downs: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • At the present time, the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense in football near the end zone (50.3% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Seahawks.
  • In this week's contest, Sam Darnold is anticipated by the projection model to wind up with the 4th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 32.1.
  • When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of CBs has been tremendous this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

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