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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks

Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+138/-148).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +138.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Seahawks offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.80 seconds per snap.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.

The Cardinals defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.

Sam Darnold's 70.7% Adjusted Completion% this season shows a significant growth in his passing accuracy over last season's 66.2% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Seahawks offensive blueprint to skew 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak now calling the plays.

The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to be the 3rd-least pass-focused team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 50.4% red zone pass rate.

Sam Darnold has attempted just 19.7 passes per game this year, ranking in the 19th percentile when it comes to QBs.

The Seattle offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

The Cardinals defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest TDs through the air in the league: 1.20 per game since the start of last season.

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