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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold TD Passes
Player Prop Week 18

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-156/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -156.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (36.2 per game) this year.
  • With an outstanding 67.7% Adjusted Completion% (87th percentile) this year, Sam Darnold has been as one of the most accurate passers in the league.
  • The 49ers defense has allowed the 6th-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.75 per game this year.
  • The San Francisco 49ers safeties profile as the 4th-worst safety corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Seahawks offense to skew 7.5% more towards running than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak now calling the plays.
  • The model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Seahawks.
  • The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

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