reorder

Sam Darnold TD Passes
Player Prop Week 18

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-156/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -156.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (36.2 per game) this year.

With an outstanding 67.7% Adjusted Completion% (87th percentile) this year, Sam Darnold has been as one of the most accurate passers in the league.

The 49ers defense has allowed the 6th-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.75 per game this year.

The San Francisco 49ers safeties profile as the 4th-worst safety corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Seahawks offense to skew 7.5% more towards running than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak now calling the plays.

The model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Seahawks.

The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

More Sam Darnold Player Props

Sam Darnold TD PassesPlayer Prop Week 18

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

Sam Darnold TD Passes
Player Prop Week 18