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Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-134/+119).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +118 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +119.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Colts defense has been something of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year.Sam Darnold is positioned as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football this year with an excellent 67.7% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 83rd percentile.With a fantastic ratio of 1.57 per game (83rd percentile), Sam Darnold ranks among the top TD throwers in football this year.As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Indianapolis's unit has been awful this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 13-point advantage, the Seahawks are a massive favorite in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on running than their usual approach.Our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to be the 2nd-least pass-focused team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 48.3% red zone pass rate.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 126.1 plays on offense called: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.The Seahawks have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.1 plays per game.
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