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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-122/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -122.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Sam Darnold checks in as one of the most on-target passers in football this year with a remarkable 68.1% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 84th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Seahawks are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to pass on 53.9% of their downs: the 7th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to be the least pass-focused team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 47.6% red zone pass rate.
  • At the moment, the 9th-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Seahawks.
  • The predictive model expects Sam Darnold to throw 33.0 passes in this game, on balance: the 8th-fewest out of all QBs.

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