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Sam Darnold TD Passes
Player Prop Week 13

Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings

Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -143.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Sam Darnold's 69.8% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a remarkable improvement in his throwing accuracy over last year's 66.2% mark.

Sam Darnold has been one of the leading TD throwers in the league this year, averaging an exceptional 1.58 per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.

The Vikings safeties rank as the 5th-worst unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Seahawks are a huge 11.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

The leading projections forecast the Seahawks as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

At the moment, the least pass-oriented team in the league near the goal line (48.3% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Seahawks.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to see just 127.9 total plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.

The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Seahawks this year (only 52.4 per game on average).

More Sam Darnold Player Props

Sam Darnold TD PassesPlayer Prop Week 13

Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings

Sam Darnold TD Passes
Player Prop Week 13