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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold TD Passes
Player Prop Week 12

Tennessee Titans vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-152/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -132 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -152.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Sam Darnold's 70.7% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a meaningful improvement in his throwing precision over last season's 66.2% mark.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-highest clip in football vs. the Titans defense this year (75.8% Adjusted Completion%).
  • When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Tennessee's group of CBs has been terrible this year, grading out as the worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme running game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a big 12.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 49.5% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
  • The predictive model expects the Seahawks to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 47.8% red zone pass rate.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have only 127.4 total plays run: the 4th-fewest among all games this week.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.3 plays per game.

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