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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers

Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+134/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +134 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +134.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Sam Darnold has been among the top TD passers in the NFL last year, averaging an outstanding 2.06 per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Seahawks have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

At the present time, the 3rd-least pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (50.9% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Seattle Seahawks.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see just 124.2 total plays called: the lowest number among all games this week.

The Seahawks have run the 8th-fewest plays in the league last year, averaging a measly 56.3 plays per game.

In this week's contest, Sam Darnold is forecasted by the model to wind up with the 8th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 32.5.

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