Sam Darnold Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Sam Darnold

NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Passing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2025

Updated Nov 3, 2025 1:07 AM EST

Analysis

Sam Darnold Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 237.5 (-114/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 237.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 237.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by our trusted projection set to have 134.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually cause increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced ground volume.
With a terrific 68.3% Adjusted Completion% (76th percentile) this year, Sam Darnold stands among the most accurate QBs in the NFL.
With an exceptional 8.73 adjusted yards-per-target (97th percentile) this year, Sam Darnold rates among the most effective quarterbacks in football.
This year, the shaky Commanders defense has allowed a massive 257.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 7th-worst in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Seattle Seahawks to be the 6th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The 7th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Seahawks this year (just 52.7 per game on average).
Sam Darnold's 209.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows a remarkable decline in his passing ability over last season's 256.0 rate.

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