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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Seattle Seahawks vs New Orleans Saints

Sam Darnold Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 216.5 (-109/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 217.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 216.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have 138.9 offensive plays run: the highest number on the slate this week.

Opposing teams have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Saints defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.

Sam Darnold is positioned as one of the leading quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 251.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.

The Saints defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.09 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season: the 5th-most in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Seattle Seahawks boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 6.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

This week's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Seahawks, who are overwhelmingly favored by 7 points.

The leading projections forecast the Seattle Seahawks as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The Seahawks have called the 8th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.

The projections expect Sam Darnold to throw 33.0 passes this week, on average: the 11th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.

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