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Sam Darnold Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 18

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

Sam Darnold Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 246.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 240.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 246.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (36.2 per game) this year.

With an outstanding 67.7% Adjusted Completion% (87th percentile) this year, Sam Darnold has been as one of the most accurate passers in the league.

Sam Darnold comes in as one of the best per-play quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging an exceptional 8.29 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the 94th percentile.

This year, the deficient San Francisco 49ers defense has been torched for a whopping 244.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 9th-most in the league.

The San Francisco 49ers safeties profile as the 4th-worst safety corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Seahawks offense to skew 7.5% more towards running than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak now calling the plays.

The model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Seahawks.

The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

Sam Darnold's 208.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year reflects a meaningful drop-off in his passing ability over last year's 256.0 rate.

More Sam Darnold Player Props

Sam Darnold Passing YardsPlayer Prop Week 18

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

Sam Darnold Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 18