Sam Darnold Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Sam Darnold

NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Passing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 17, 2025

Updated Dec 29, 2025 1:07 AM EST

Analysis

Sam Darnold Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 222.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 221.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 222.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
With a remarkable 67.6% Adjusted Completion% (81st percentile) this year, Sam Darnold rates as one of the most accurate QBs in football.
With an excellent 8.44 adjusted yards-per-target (97th percentile) this year, Sam Darnold has been as one of the most effective QBs in the league.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a big 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 54.1% of their chances: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Seattle Seahawks are anticipated by the model to call only 63.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Seahawks have called the 4th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 53.4 plays per game.
In this contest, Sam Darnold is projected by the projection model to wind up with the 8th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 32.1.

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