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Sam Darnold Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 231.5 (-114/-114).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.Sam Darnold checks in as one of the most on-target passers in football this year with a remarkable 68.1% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 84th percentile.Sam Darnold profiles as one of the best per-play QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 8.44 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the 97th percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Seahawks are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to pass on 53.9% of their downs: the 7th-lowest clip on the slate this week.At the moment, the 9th-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Seahawks.The predictive model expects Sam Darnold to throw 33.0 passes in this game, on balance: the 8th-fewest out of all QBs.Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 31.1 per game) this year.
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