Sam Darnold Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Sam Darnold

NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Carolina Panthers

Interceptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam Darnold Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-138/+108).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to use backup QB Sam Darnold this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Sam Darnold has averaged 1.00 interceptions per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 2nd percentile among QBs.
The Seattle Seahawks linebackers grade out as the 6th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 52.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Sam Darnold to attempt 30.2 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.

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