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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold Carries
Player Prop Week 5

Seattle Seahawks vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Sam Darnold Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+108/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -134 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -138.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Seahawks are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
  • The predictive model expects the Seahawks as the 4th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 46.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • In terms of a defense's influence on tempo, the Seattle Seahawks defense has allowed opposing squads to play 8th-quickest in the league (in a neutral context) this year at 27.87 seconds per play.
  • The leading projections forecast Sam Darnold to be a much bigger part of his team's run game in this game (9.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.2% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects Sam Darnold to garner 2.8 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 8th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
  • As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Tampa Bay's group of safeties has been one of the most skilled this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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