Russell Wilson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · New York Giants

Touchdowns

New York Giants vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2025

Updated Sep 22, 2025 12:17 AM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+620/-800).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +610 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +620.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is implied by the Giants being a -6-point underdog this week.
Our trusted projections expect the New York Giants to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 10th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (57.8% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the New York Giants.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) typically prompt increased passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New York Giants are anticipated by the predictive model to call only 62.8 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
While Russell Wilson has accounted for 9.2% of his offense's red zone rushing play calls in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be much more involved in New York's run game near the goal line in this week's contest at 19.7%.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Giants profiles as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season.
Russell Wilson's throwing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 66.1% to 62.0%.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 6th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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