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Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

New York Giants vs Kansas City Chiefs

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+134/-152).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +152 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +134.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is implied by the Giants being a -6-point underdog this week.

Our trusted projections expect the New York Giants to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 10th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (57.8% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the New York Giants.

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) typically prompt increased passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New York Giants are anticipated by the predictive model to call only 62.8 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.

In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Giants profiles as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season.

Russell Wilson's throwing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 66.1% to 62.0%.

The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 6th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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