Russell Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 12:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+154/-200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.9% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.0 plays per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties grade out as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Russell Wilson's throwing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 56.3%.
Russell Wilson has been among the bottom TD throwers in the league this year, averaging a paltry 0.83 per game while ranking in the 25th percentile.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.