Russell Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · New York Giants

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 1, 2025

Updated Sep 7, 2025 4:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-114/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The opposing side have rushed for the 9th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (133 per game) vs. the Commanders defense last year.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Washington's collection of DEs has been lousy last year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Giants are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New York Giants to run on 40.8% of their chances: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Russell Wilson's ground effectiveness (4.89 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football last year (16th percentile when it comes to QBs).

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