Russell Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 12:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.0 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (11.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.2% in games he has played).
Russell Wilson's running efficiency has been refined this year, accumulating 5.98 yards-per-carry vs a measly 4.49 figure last year.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Russell Wilson has been among the worst quarterbacks in football at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 0.95 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 21st percentile.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense owns the 4th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing just 4.20 yards-per-carry.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles profile as the 4th-best DT corps in football this year with their run defense.
The Denver Broncos have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.