Russell Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 7, 2022 12:20 AM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack this week (11.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.1% in games he has played).
Russell Wilson's ground effectiveness has gotten better this season, accumulating 5.30 yards-per-carry vs a measly 4.49 rate last season.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has produced the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up just 3.43 yards-per-carry.
The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles grade out as the best unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

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