Russell Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+101/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are an enormous 10-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 7th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack this week (13.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.0% in games he has played).
Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-most yards in the league (144 per game) against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.
The Houston Texans safeties rank as the 30th-worst unit in football since the start of last season with their run defense.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.43 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.