Russell Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+110/-150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (12.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.9% in games he has played).
Russell Wilson has run for many more yards per game (17.0) this year than he did last year (12.0).
Russell Wilson's running efficiency has improved this season, averaging 6.05 yards-per-carry vs a mere 4.49 rate last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends profile as the 3rd-worst group of DEs in the league this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 35.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-least yards in football (just 106 per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.

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