Russell Wilson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Passing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 1:26 PM EST

Analysis

Russell Wilson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 228.5 (-105/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 228.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 228.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.0 plays per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.55 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties grade out as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Russell Wilson's throwing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 56.3%.
Russell Wilson has been among the worst per-play quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 6.56 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 23rd percentile.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.