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Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts

Russell Wilson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 239.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 225.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 239.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

The Indianapolis Colts defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 7.38 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in football.

The Indianapolis Colts linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-least in the league.

Russell Wilson's passing precision has tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 59.0%.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in football against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season (68.5%).

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